Television vs. Video Games. Fight!

<BELL RINGS>

“In the red corner weighting in at 110lbs is the TV, undisputed champion of the sitting room since 1954, the darling of countless billions who have succumbed to its simple soporific charms. In the blue corner, the nimble upstart, the Video Game console, weighing in at 8lbs, rocking thumbs since the late 70s, but claiming their first world crown in 1985. The object of parental dismay ever since, and a font of moral panics. TV has been repeatedly bested by the youngster over the years but now is the time for TV to fight back! …”

This fight is far from over and the title bout takes place each year in January in Las Vegas at CES. Las Vegas is more than gin soaked gamblers, lamenting their losses in gaudy palaces of deceit. It’s the battle arena for global consumer electronics giants to fire salvos at each other. Each device is slimmer, faster and more innovative than the next. Want a 4mm thin TV? You got it. A fridge that can chill a can of coke in five minutes flat? Waterproof Smartphone. No problem.

CES is significant as its there that SMART TV is publicly racing ahead. Adoption is yet to reach a tipping point, but the migration is clearly apparent and for the console manufacturers, SMART TV is a spectre that cannot be ignored. App Stores on the device allied with intuitive inputs, motion control, gesture control and voice recognition are all present in the latest TVs. The ‘Killer App’ of Kinect just got pulled into the host, Kinect and the 360 now look like a counterintuitive double act. They’re starting to resemble clutter in the early stages of obsolescence.

It used to be the case that a games console provided entertainment that the TV could not, this hegemony went unchecked for decades as screen manufacturers stood idly by watching Nintendo, SEGA and Sony make a killing, delivering visceral content through adopted hosts. By the time the Xbox came along the stranglehold was vice like and the need for a console to deliver games was unassailable. They were untouchable.

The Wii arrived. Dragging with it new input methods and consumers, who were the exact intersect of the TV/Gaming audience. The lines became blurred primarily as the consumers (primarily) didn’t care which device was delivering the experience. The Wii UI aped TV channels, and recalled an aged CRT screen. The shark had been jumped. The console was invisible. Then the single most seismic event ever to hit gaming came along. The equivalent of the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs. The App Store.

In hindsight the Wii’s achievements will be all but forgotten, seen as an anomaly, an old model based on hackneyed technology allied with unique ideas.  The App Store opened the wallets of the non gaming ABC1 audience. The iPhone was a trojan horse, silver bullet and a vial of poison all wrapped into one. The games industry is still reeling from its impact. Its clear many will never get up from the suckerpunch.

The App Store explosion legitimized short form content delivery to the mainstream, and awakened every device manufacturer, to the fact they would to become a digital storefront. Many wastefully spent billions in an effort to mimic Apple, few succeeded. In 2012, It’s all about the audience. Samsung and LG command huge global audiences, engaging with them daily. They provide the warm blanket, the reassuring voice and the window on the world. TV is second only to the mobile phone as the ultimate ‘personal’ device. People love TV. Watch as they place them on walls, pushing family portraits to one side. Placed on an altar for the worship of false prophets.

TV as a concept crushes the Video Game a billion times. Video Games are niche. TV is Simon Cowell. TV is a huge metal fist in a velvet glove, the host will defeat the parasite, and the content will migrate into the TV. The consumer has ceased to care. Fanboys are a niche that are no longer the target of the console manufacturers attention.  The irony is that the console manufacturers are driving convergence, with motion control and the drive to turn Xbox LIVE into a ‘entertainment destination’, thereby quickening the infection. The 360 has mutated from a core gaming platform to a set-top box in an aim to capture the lapsed Wii audience. The problem? This audience has already made the jump to mobile and tablet, and they’re not coming back.

To the console manufacturers who think this won’t happen, I have one word. Kodak.

Video Games consoles are laid on the canvas bleary eyed, as the referee stands over them counting …

< … 7, 8, 9 … Its time to throw in the towel … >

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Welcome to the Slaughterhouse: What the new Xbox Dashboard means to developers

At Develop in 2010, Sean Murray from Hello Games described XBLA as a “kind of a slaughterhouse for smaller developers” (his reservations have clearly been overcome as Joe Danger will soon be published by Microsoft Studios). Murray pointed to PSN as a more egalitarian channel for those looking to self publish. Murray isnt alone in noticing the role the dashboard plays in securing the success of download titles on Xbox Live. Before we demonize, we need to understand what role the dashboard plays and the pivotal role of UI.

Xbox Live has always had a fundamental problem. Text Input.

Microsoft has chosen to avoid the input issue by enabling voice search. It works, but doesn’t overcome the primary issue for developers – The fundamental importance of discovery. Potential customers can only search for something they are already aware of, and whilst it makes it easier it is a thousand miles away from a mechanic such as Amazon recommends, or Stumbleupon, which are both highly effective as driving discovery (PSN already utilises this feature).

Controller based input of text is arduous. The solutions are simple (keypad or USB keyboard), but the barrier to discovery (however slight) remained significant. This led to a pervasive influence of the dashboard. This is common to all digital store fronts as iTunes and Steam both have a huge bearing the success of promoted titles. The AppStore and Android marketplace further amplify the problem due to lack  screen real estate. The issue therefore is the consumer, most are passive and  are happy with what is deemed to be ‘preferable’ – ‘The Editors Choice’.  Within a walled garden (as all these storefronts are), promoted content is chosen by the platform holder, based upon potential of commercial  success, platform alignment and fit within the current portfolio. In the case where platform holders are also content creators, the support of Third Party content also has to align with support for First Party titles.

The final piece of the puzzle is paid advertising. XBLA and PSN differ from iTunes and Steam in that they accept advertising. Vocal critics have been vociferous in damming the new Xbox Dashboard as being driven by advertising. These criticisms are a little late in the day, as the previous dashboard was built around advertising, the fundamental difference is the advertising is now more persistent, every slot is currently occupied and clearly labelled. As a Gold subscriber it feels ironic that consumers pay to remove ads from services like Spotify, yet they remain on Xbox Live. The argument would be that the consumer is paying for a subscription service, whereas Spotify is an ad-supported service. That’s a point for another post.

Content creators therefore have a mountain to climb ahead of getting the content live on the service. Awareness. Achievement of supply chain objectives isn’t enough. The chances of success are supported by the few titles that confound sales expectations.

The predefined release schedules of XBLA (usually two titles a week as part of a managed portfolio) provide a focus for consumers, but also create a meat grinder that provides a short window (that is actually reflective of consumers attention spans). XBLA’s pre-requisite for trials for every title, also foster and support a ‘demo culture’ where 90% of consumers are only playing trial versions. This strengthens the platform as it provides a pipeline of free content, and adds value to the platform. This creates a robust consumer offering of varied content that is all try before you buy. A belief this is free to play is misguided as it’s a segment of the full product, whereas free to play is ordinarily a fully realised game, where additional features are purchased for a supplementary fee. XBLA is more akin to being given a free piece of chocolate at the supermarket. The final sale is purely related to the experience of the first taste.

Developers, Independent or otherwise must be cogniscent of the role of the platform and the role of the trial experience they are delivering. A second-rate trial is usually indicative of the quality of the final product. Xbox Live does not owe developers a living, but similarly it owes a huge debt to the content creators who keep the platform alive. Without the content Xbox Live is a server architecture and box of components. Developers can question the restrictive nature of the service architecture and the business models it currently supports, but criticising a platform for being competitive (and therefore destructive) is missing the point, Digital distribution empowers content creators to deliver straight to the consumer, albeit through controlled channels. The alternative is the Wild West of P2P. Ask the Music Industry how that worked out for them …

Whilst there will always be a puppet master, its more about learning how to pull the strings rather than cut them.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Playstation

PlayStation 3 vs. Xbox 360

Affinity is a bitch. Humans gravitate to certain things. Preference.

Gamers like football/music/literature fans globally become torn by affinity.  For gamers the battle lines delinenate by platforms. Platform holders promote and encourage the points of difference. Killer software = system sellers. The marketing mathematics is simple. Gamers are split down the middle … the platform agnostic and the fan-boys. The seventh generation is typified by three viable, concurrent home based platforms. The flag in the sand came from the X360 in 2005, and as an Xbox fanatic it was easy to make the jump to 360. Case closed.

By 2007, the arrival of Playstation 3, my allegiances were already clear. It wasn’t until 2008 that I felt compelled to actually pick up the Dual Shock. Even the launch of Uncharted hadn’t been enough to sway me. The positioning felt too close to X360, and there wasnt a clear and immediate need for me to invest time in another platform. There was also no Gamerscore which by that point had already got me in its insidious vice-like grip. Only Little Big Planet had intrigued me enough to make the leap. LBP was a system seller, a unique experience unlike any other, powered and empowered by PlayStation 3. The game was jaw dropping.

Then nothing … There wasn’t another experience as compelling on PS3. I went right back to X360.

The PS3 served as a Blu-Ray player, then an iPlayer experience that all but eradicated any scheduled TV viewing. The PS3 had become part of daily life, in a context that I had never anticipated. It still struggled to compete for gameplay time. However in post E3 2011, PS3 feels like the vanguard of core gaming. Standing alone with a purity of gameplay experiences that I’d overlooked before.

Two tasks stand in my way. Finding a local meeting of Gamerscore Anonymous and training my hands to accept the Dual Shock. Muscle memory is a cruel mistress …

How to buy Video Games at Car Boot sales: A practical guide

The History

The Car Boot sale is a peculiarly British phenomenon, that can be traced back to the early 1970s. Father Harry Clarke kicked off the idea , a Catholic priest from Stockport, who had seen a similar thing in Canada. The Car Boot sale has survived even after the advent of Ebay. Their existence is a testament to the fact that some people are either reluctant to sell their tat online, incapable or prefer not to. Car Boots are utterly random, a cornucopia of oddments in a field that you couldn’t imagine if you tried. Looking for a Foot-Spa, go to the carboot. Looking for a fondue you can fill with Baileys? Car Boot. Looking for an amateur oil painting of an oil rig on fire? You get the idea…

This is a guide for those brave, stupid or reckless enough to ‘dig’ for games at Boot Sales. Record ‘Digging’ gave birth to sample culture and is well documented. Everything else is just collecting …

The Basics

  1. Car boot sales are nationwide in the UK and happen most weekends from Spring to Autumn. For the hardy there are many that take place through the year, these are usually in desolate and soul-destroying car parks near to low rent supermarkets and abandoned buildings. The best car boots are in a field on sunny Sunday morning. More details here.
  2. Take change and plastic bags. Sounds basic, but if you don’t have a bag (supermarket carriers are best as they identify you as classless) you will be frowned at and if you have a note over a fiver, there will be a drama like you have never seen. “Twenty pound notes? … Didn’t even know they existed mate …”
  3. Dress down. If you look like you have slept in a dumpster more the better. Don’t get dressed up. Walk hunched if you can. Grunt when you talk.

What will you find?

In short, a field of unimaginable second-hand debris sold by one of two groups of people:

  1. Traders: The scourge of the Car Boot. These are easy to spot. They will be smoking (irrespective of time or day), likely to have tattoos on their hands and generally quite shifty looking. Most likely ‘Geezers’. They usually have a large van that calls out some kind of business that doesn’t always look legit. it’s often scaffolding, car modifications or house clearances. There stalls are usually larger than everyone else, spilling in every direction, often with a sea of tat at jacked up prices. In the case of games, there is a long tradition of selling DVDs and many of these traders have moved into games. The problem is that they have no idea what is good from bad so arbitrarily price games as high as they think they can get away with. The issue with traders is that they will turn up at 7am sweep the remainder of the sale for the items they are looking for and then resell. If you are buying from a trader you will always get a worse deal. I warn you.
  2. Private Sellers: These are ‘normal’ people, who have a bunch of things in their house that they don’t want. Games are only a small part of what they own, so be alert, quick and be prepared to ‘dig’. They are easy to spot, they look like a family, and seen keen to get rid of the stuff they loaded their car with the day before. They ideally want to go home with an empty car and a few quid in their pocket. Mum’s who have cleaned out their son’s room when they have gone to university are a prime target.

Know the Market

As mentioned briefly above there is very little understanding of the market value of games. In comparison to other Car Boot items they are premium items. It’s common to see 95% depreciation in price on other items such as books whereas games still command a relatively high price. As soon as anyone sees a PS3 or 360 game they will charge well over the odds. As a comparison an average quality DVD will go for 75p to £1. Be aware of current second-hand prices through visits to the High Street or check online with a site like CEX. It’s common for current gen software to be priced for near to their high street second-hand value. If you are alert, you can avoid this.

Many traders are now pitching all Xbox games as backward compatible. Around 400 titles are, so there is plenty to dig for. Go here, print out the list and put it in your back pocket. Traders hate it when you know more than they do. If you are a serious gamer you will also have a better chance of knowing the gems than they do. A raft of PS1 and PS2 games are also playable on PS3. Go here for the list. Dont forget the Wii also plays Gamecube games.

If you buy retro you are potentially in for the find of a lifetime, with GBA, Gameboy, Megadrive, SNES, NES and PSP titles all very well represented (often unboxed). I have seen 3DO and laserdisc game but they are very uncommon. The totally unexpected could be one carboot away!

Always check the condition, if in doubt don’t buy!

Look out for hardware, there is often little power on site to test hardware, so buyer beware! having said that if you are looking for a 360 debug they turn up more frequently than you might imagine. The image below is a Xbox debug, look out for them! If you are buying handhelds carry a pocketful of the relevant batteries.

Also look out for hardware bundles (many remain boxed), bought as gifts and remain relatively unused. PS1, PS2 are ubiquitous, and very easy to find. Mega CDs are also more common than you think.

Promo games are common and are the same as retail version but don’t include a booklet. They often have no sleeve (PS3) and x360 games have a greyed out cover with a large flash across the cover. The game discs themselves are exactly the same.

The Price

The price is rarely marked, so involves a  mind game of the trader guessing what you are prepared to pay, and you trying to get them down on price. Use discretion, but don’t be scared to haggle. A deal can always be done. Have a price you think is fair in mind, don’t go above that. You can usually tell from the off, if there is room to move on the price. The better deal is always done with private sellers not traders who will move from one boot sale to the next, whether they sell stock on the day or not is not a major concern.

Don’t Forget: This is not easy (and often not fun)

Most of the time you will get there at 7am, find nothing and meet some characters better suited to a gnarly RPG than a field in Surrey. However perseverance pays off and you need to stick at it. At this point I suppose I should say something motivational to encourage you to sacrifice your Sunday mornings, not so. You stay in bed and let the wild-eyed game diggers do their work, feverishly outwitting the elements to build collections you can only dream of.

Keep up … we’re already three steps ahead of you.

Are Video Games consoles globally irrelevant?

Some call it witchcraft I call it a calculator. These have been working overtime recently at Strategy Analytics as they concluded:

… you might be surprised to hear it; but Sony’s PlayStation 3 has passed Microsoft’s Xbox 360 in one key respect: the global active installed base of consoles … the global active installed base of PS3s reached 43.4M at the end of 2010. This exceeded the equivalent number of Xbox 360s by 43.9M. [Strategy Analytics] … estimate that the overtaking manoeuvre happened during December 2010 as the holiday season reached its peak.

At this point its worth triggering the Auto-Caveat-Creator™. If you look at the VG Chartz figures X360 is in the lead, based on ship figures and the greatest stumble in console history (The Red Ring Of Death) has dealt a heavy blow to the active installed base:

[Strategy Analytics] ownership models apply assumptions about device retirement life cycles to console sales data on a regional and global basis.

Strategy Analytics had been effectively tracking the Wii and predicted a peak mid 2011, that would be passed by PS3 in 2013 and Xbox 360 in 2014. Their method is robust. So what does this mean? All in there are about 175 million active consoles globally. The DS and handheld iOS platforms are currently tracking around 150 Million each.

Including handhelds: publishers, developers and interlopers are fighting for a slice of a 55o million global device pie, about 40% of the population of China. In this context, as a global phenomena, console penetration is slight. Global PC penetration currently estimated at 1.2 billion worldwide is dwarfed by the population of China, only global TV penetration outstrips it

The developed nations are housing coveted publishing powerhouses and platform holders, that are yet to admit PC gaming is dead and Game Consoles are irrelevant.

Bring on the 8th Generation.

Is Crysis 2 Pretty Vacant?

Crysis 2 has attracted attention for two primary reasons. It looks amazing but has badly implemented A.I.

What Crysis 2 looks like is largely irrelevant. I’ve heard it dismissed as a tech demo and I’ve been told it’s the best looking game on console. It doesn’t make my jaw drop. Maybe playing on 360 doesn’t mean I get the benefit of the extreme PC specs. Crysis 2 envelopes you in 5.1 with an immersive bubble that wraps around you and subliminally pushes you eyes front and centre. The gun sounds are sublime. Its orchestrated chaos. Does it look better than other games? At this point who cares … We are so far into the console cycle that HD gaming has become a homogenous mass with jaded players difficult to astonish.

Only one game I own does that. Uncharted 2 and I haven’t even finished it. I was a graphics whore (as we all are) but the jump to HD satiated my desires. What I want now is photo realism.

Forget the looks. How does it feel?. Playing Crysis 2 makes me feel like a predator, empowered by tech and a gruff voiced nanosuit that has pimped my DNA just enough to push me into the category of Official Badass™. Crysis 2 gives you a couple of options. Disappear or stand and fight. It’s best when it encourages a chaotic mix of the two. But how does it empower? Primarily by making your abilities overwhelm your enemies. This is where the A.I. argument kicks in.

Nobody wants A.I. that is actually more intelligent than they are. That would be a game that kicks your ass, learns how you think, outwits you and then kicks your ass ad infinitum. Playing a game like that is like Nigel Short playing Garry Kasparov.

Multiplayer (MP) works for the super users as their rote learnt knowledge of maps and the failings and innate errors of humans make them easy prey. The ones who don’t enjoy MP are the ones who haven’t invested enough time to learn how to execute the stupid. To that end the skilled MP player is playing against stupid irrational A.I. that is human-powered. That’s the kicker for the trash talking mainstream fuelled by braggadocio, Mountain Dew and Cheetos dust. They scream ‘pwned’ into headsets with no hint of irony, crying out for ‘noob juice’ like fevered hyenas feasting on the weak.

The A.I. gamers claim they want is a lie. A.I. lies to you, fooling you into thinking you have outwitted the machine. Machines are cleverer than we are, with the ability to preempt and predict a multitude of variations.  That’s why we use excel to do our sums. Gamers complain when they don’t understand the dimensions of the experience they actually enjoy, everybody wants to feel empowered,  Officially Badass™.

Why does A.I. fail? Because it’s created by humans, game A.I. fails as it’s an entertainment experience not a simulation where life and death are absolute.